Modeling Contractor’s Cash-in-Flow in Public School Building Projects in Karbala
Keywords:Cash-flow Management, Forecasting S-curves, Financing Construction, Time-cost Model, Regression Methods
Public school building projects in Karbala Province experiences payment problems due to improper cash-flow planning by both parties; contractors and clients. These payment problems lead to work stoppages and conflicts. This research aims at developing a suitable model to forecast the expected contractors’ cash-in-flow in public school building projects in Karbala based on historical data. Complete sets of interim payments of (33) out of (38) school building projects finished in the years (2007-2012) in Karbala were interpolated using seven different regression methods namely; Polynomial, Gompertz, Morgan-Morgan-Finney, Logistic, Exponential, Gaussian and Linear in order to identify the best-suited model. It is found that the third degree polynomial model is more suitable for cash-in-flow forecasting of the case under study with coefficient of correlation of (97.89%) and standard error of (0.0441). Data of the remaining (5) projects were used to test the validity of the best-fitted model using Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Root Mean Square Error and Average Accuracy Percentage. The model is expected to be of high advantage in predicting contractors’ cash-in-flow in public school building projects in Karbala, and consequently clients’ cash-out-flow as well.
How to Cite
- Each author retains the right to use the work for non-commercial purposes as well as for further research and spoken presentations.
- Each author retains the right to use the illustrations and research data in his/her future work.
- Only one offprint is provided free for each author. The authors can order offprints at the proof stage at certain rates depending on the number of additional copies required and the year of publication.
The publisher of the journal has full rights for publication of the submitted manuscripts, electronic and facsimile formats and for electronic capture, reproduction and licensing in all formats now and in perpetuity in the original and all derivative works.